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Why are opinion polls predicting Modi's third term in India?

Updated: Mar 2

As India nears the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections, insights from the Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey have illuminated the political landscape influencing the nation's trajectory. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, appears positioned to clinch a third consecutive term with a strong mandate.


The BJP has initiated a nationwide pre-election campaign with the launch of the Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra. This roadshow will involve the deployment of thousands of government officials to towns and villages across the nation over the next two months. Their objective is to highlight the BJP's achievements over the past nine years, although concerns have been raised about the politicization of government bureaucracy and resources for campaigning purposes.

Additionally, the Ministry of Defence is establishing 822 "selfie points" at various locations such as war memorials, defence museums, railway stations, and tourist attractions. These points will feature Modi cutouts, allowing people to take photos with them.


The recent electoral victories of the BJP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh seemed to validate Modi's enduring popularity. Despite the fact that state elections primarily focus on selecting local assembly representatives, the BJP strategically positioned Modi as the focal point of their campaigns in lieu of local leaders. Modi actively participated in numerous rallies, directly engaging with voters and portraying himself as the embodiment of the party.

In his campaign speeches, Modi emphasized the BJP's welfare initiatives, which include significant provisions of free food and cash handouts, alongside nationalist and religiously charged rhetoric. This combination provides insight into the BJP's approach to the upcoming national elections.


Modi's significant role in enhancing India's stature as a global power, whether in the realm of international politics or the recent achievement of its moon landing in August, cannot be overstated. India became the first country to successfully land a spacecraft near the lunar south pole, showcasing its prowess in space exploration under Modi's leadership.


In addition to the aforementioned factors, there are three primary reasons why people might choose to vote for him for the third time.


  1. The prevailing belief is that the primary reason for his predicted victory is the inauguration of the Ayodhya Shri Ram temple. Undoubtedly, this event holds significant weight. However, even before this milestone, he had maintained a strong position on the path to victory. In any election, voters are presented with various candidates to choose from, often between two prominent contenders. In this context, questions naturally arise regarding the qualifications of Rahul Gandhi, particularly when juxtaposed with Modi's extensive experience as the Chief Minister of Gujarat for 13 years and Prime Minister of India for 10 years. While there exists a steadfast vote bank for the Congress party, which may not scrutinize these aspects, there is a crucial segment of the electorate that does consider such factors. This segment, currently larger than anticipated, plays a decisive role in Indian politics.

  2. The economy stands as the second most significant factor. India holds optimistic projections to ascend to the third-largest economy by 2035, currently occupying the fifth position. This trajectory suggests a potential rise to the third spot within the next five years. Such a promise serves as another compelling reason for voters. Every Indian aspires to be recognized as a citizen of a developed nation. Aware of the economic situations in neighboring countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan, the populace desires to vote for a nation on the path of development.

  3. The third significant factor revolves around the Muslim community in India. While the opposition and certain media outlets often emphasize this aspect, discerning Muslims understand the political maneuvers of both Congress and Muslim leaders. They believe that with leaders like Modi in authority, such political maneuvers will no longer persist, offering the prospect of a more stable environment. They envision a future where their children can stay at home rather than participating in protests or facing incarceration.



India, as a nation, belongs to all its citizens, irrespective of their religious affiliations, and under the guidance of leaders like Modi, it strives to uphold this inclusivity.






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